Where does a pencil come from?
The Great Depression and monetary policy
Policies must be judged by their results, not their intentions (reposted; this is a 30-min full interview)
Economic policy in India, and perhaps in other countries, is constrained by powerful prevailing myths and prejudices. Sometimes these myths simply reflect lazy thinking or an apparent immunity to facts. Sometimes they are shored up by strong vested interests. Sometimes all three. Whatever the reason it is hard to dispute the potency of myths in economic policy making. Here are my 10 favourites, some old, some new.
1. Higher minimum support prices for food grains are good for farmers. Not so. Yes, they are good for a powerful minority of farmers who have sizable marketable surpluses and ready access to government procurement programmes. But the majority of Indian farmers (especially poorer marginal farmers) are hurt by higher food prices for the simple reason that they are net buyers of food grains. And when you add in tens of millions of landless labour, it is quite clear that inexorably higher MSPs for wheat and rice are often quite damaging for rural households.2. The move to a Goods and Services Tax will reduce the burden of taxation. I hope not! Or the already enormous fiscal deficit will soar higher. The more thoughtful government pronouncements do speak of a reform which is revenue-neutral or even revenue-enhancing. But there are many who tout the illusory prospect of a lower tax burden. The underlying logic of this reform is not tax relief but rather relief from distorted economic incentives and avoidable hassles and uncertainties, which are embedded in the current system of multiple indirect taxes.
3. There is no role for monetary policy when inflation is driven by supply shortfalls. Not quite. The truth is that the extent and duration of an inflationary bout triggered by a supply shock (such as a drought) does depend on the degree of accommodation offered by monetary policy. If liquidity is excessive, the inflationary consequences will be greater; if liquidity is tighter, price increases will be less. Of course, the act of tightening monetary policy can reduce output expansion. Hence the short term trade-off between inflation and growth is a live issue even when the initial shock is from the supply side. And then there is the problem of expectations: if monetary policy stands pat in the face of supply-induced inflation, then inflationary expectations can fuel the fire.
4. Our labour laws protect labour. Quite the opposite. Present laws over-protect a tiny minority (about 5 per cent of India’s 450m plus labour force, not counting government employees) at the expense of the vast majority of workers. By making it extremely difficult to retrench workers in the organised sector our existing laws massively discourage the employment of new workers in organized enterprises. In effect, these laws are very anti-employment and lead to huge under utilisation and “casualisation”of our most abundant resource, low-skill labour.
5. The exchange rate only matters to exporters. This is a common misperception, even among trained economists. Actually, the exchange rate is the single most important price in the economy, which powerfully influences the relative profitability of all tradable goods and services versus non-tradables (like haircuts in Delhi or restaurant meals in Mumbai). Thus, an appreciation of the rupee (versus foreign currencies) not only makes exports less profitable but also hurts an even greater range of import substitutes, that is goods and services produced for our home market in competition with imports from abroad.
6. Reducing fiscal deficits hurts growth. In the present “fiscally stimulated” environment there is much anxiety that a reduction in the current record high fiscal deficits (over 10 per cent of gross domestic product) will hurt growth. The massive deficits of 2008/9 and 2009/10 were perhaps justifiable in the face of contractionary effects of the global crisis. But these deficits are neither sustainable nor desirable. Actually, the Indian economy has grown fastest during periods when deficits were being reduced (1992-1997 and 2003-2008) and slower when deficits were expanding (1997-2002). This is because less government borrowing usually facilitates more productive private investment.
7. Subsidies on food, fuel and electricity help mainly the poor. Not so. The food subsidy mainly helps better off farmers and consumers in only four or five states where the public distribution system has effective coverage. The great majority of India’s poor do not have effective access to subsidized food grains. Many studies have shown that the huge subsidies on petrol, diesel, LPG cylinders and kerosene mainly accrue to better-off urban households (all those fuel-guzzling cars and SUVs). The large state government subsidies on electricity for agriculture have helped to thoroughly undermine the development of a viable electricity distribution network and kept our villages in darkness. In contrast, note how the rapid spread of mobile telephony did not need subsidies.
8. Foreign capital inflows are always good for our economy. Twenty years ago most Indians believed the opposite, that all private foreign capital inflows were bad and somehow designed to impoverish us. In the last two decades the conventional “wisdom” has swung to the opposite extreme. In fact, as both the Asian crisis of 1997-8 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-9 has amply demonstrated, foreign capital inflows into a developing country can be a mixed blessing. Specifically, for India, the capital inflow surge of 2005-8 posed serious problems of an overly appreciated exchange rate, excess domestic liquidity and an asset price boom. The more thoughtful of our policy-makers, including then Reserve Bank governor Reddy, grasped the need for capital account management in such situations.
9. Private provision of infrastructure can effectively substitute for government. Private public partnerships are the ruling mantra of the day. Since government has failed badly in providing adequate power, roads, ports, water, sanitation and so forth, we must turn to PPPs for our deliverance. Or so runs the new myth. Of course, there is a big and useful part that the private sector can play in building up our infrastructure. But the experience from all over the world suggests that the government must continue to play the major role in this area. In particular, PPPs cannot substitute for effective governance in infrastructure provision. Indeed, there is a growing body of experience which suggests that the governance requirements of PPPs are pretty high, if we are not to fall prey to the rip-offs of crony capitalism.
10. The trader (or middle man) is at the root of many of our economic problems. This is one of our really hoary and hairy myths. Whenever the rate of inflation rises, governments blame rapacious traders and deploy regulations to control their stocking and other activities. The truth is traders are essential to the efficient functioning of an economy. Commerce is the lifeblood of economic activity. Of course, individual traders exploit whatever monopoly power circumstances grant them to maximize their profits. But the problem does not lie with traders. It rests with the circumstances and policies which nurture national or local monopolies and oligopolies. The best antidote to monopolistic exploitation is competition. And that is best nurtured through better connectivity (transport and communication) and reduction of regulations and levies which fragment markets and raise barriers to competition, whether from abroad or at home.
Eva Marie Cassidy (February 2, 1963 – November 2, 1996) was an American vocalist known for her interpretations of jazz, blues, folk, gospel, country and pop classics. In 1992 she released her first album, The Other Side, a set of duets with go-go musician Chuck Brown, followed by a live solo album, Live at Blues Alley in 1996. Although she had been honored by the Washington Area Music Association, she was virtually unknown outside her native Washington, DC when she died of melanoma in 1996.
Four years later, Cassidy's music was brought to the attention of British audiences when her version of "Over the Rainbow" was played by Terry Wogan on BBC Radio 2. Following the overwhelming response, a camcorder recording of "Over the Rainbow", taken at the Blues Alley, was shown on BBC Two's Top of the Pops 2. Shortly afterwards, the compilation album Songbird climbed to the top of the UK Albums Charts, almost three years after its initial release. The chart success in the United Kingdom led to increased recognition worldwide; as of 2008 her posthumously released recordings, including three UK #1s, have sold around eight million copies. Her music has also charted top 10 positions in Australia, Germany, Sweden, Norway and Switzerland.
from wikipedia
An American scientist announces that the world will end...what do you think would be the effects on people between the announcement and the moment of cataclysm? What would you do in this last hour? ***
I think that life would suddenly seem wonderful to us if we were threatened to die as you say. Just think of how many projects, travels, love affairs, studies our life hides from us, made invisible by our laziness which, certain of a future, delays them incessantly.
But let all this threaten to become impossible for ever, how beautiful it would become again! Ah! if only the cataclysm doesn't happen this time, we won't miss visiting the new galleries of the Lourve, throwing ourselves at the feet of Miss X., making a trip to India.
The cataclysm doesn't happen, we don't do any of it, because we find ourselves back in the heart of normal life, where negligence deadens desire. And yet we shouldn't have needed the cataclysm to love life today. It would have been enough to think that we are humans, and that death may come this evening.
นายอุทิศ เหมะมูล หนุ่มจิตรกร ชาวสระบุรี คว้ารางวัลซีไรต์ปี 2552 ประเภทนวนิยายเรื่อง "ลับแล,แก่งคอย" นับว่าเป็นครั้งแรกที่คณะกรรมการตัดสินมีมติเป็น เอกฉันท์ ชี้เป็นนวนิยายที่เสนอมิติอันซับซ้อนของตัวตนมนุษย์ ใช้กลวิธีเล่าเรื่องได้แยบยล ภาษาสวยและทรงพลัง แสดงจินตนาการผู้เขียนสุดลึกซึ้ง
ม.ร.ว.สุขุมพันธุ์อ่านคำประกาศของคณะกรรมการตัดสินว่า นวนิยายเรื่อง ลับแล,แก่งคอย ของนายอุทิศ เหมะมูล เสนอมิติที่ซับซ้อนของตัวตนมนุษย์ที่แยกไม่ออกจากรากเหง้า ชาติพันธุ์ ชุมชน ความเชื่อ และเรื่องเล่า โดยผู้เขียนเล่าเรื่องชีวิตมนุษย์ที่ต้องเผชิญความคาดหวัง ซึ่งไม่อาจต้านทานได้และพยายามดิ้นรนหาทางออก ซึ่งผู้เขียนใช้กลวิธีการเล่าเรื่องอันแยบยล สร้างตัวละครที่มีเลือดเนื้อและอารมณ์ราวกับมีตัวตนจริง สร้างฉากและบรรยากาศได้อย่างมีชีวิตชีวา และใช้ภาษาเรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง แสดงจินตภาพกระจ่างและงดงาม
ในความทรงจำของชีวิต เราต่างมีบาดแผลทางจิตวิญญาณเกาะติดกันอยู่อย่างติดตรึงและลึกเร้น บางขณะมันมักจะลงโทษเราจนป่วยไข้...และหลายๆขณะมันมักจะผลักดันให้เราต้องตก อยู่ในอาการหม่นมืดคลุมเครือหลับๆตื่นๆ เป็นจริตแห่งมายาคติที่ตามติด...คอยหลอกหลอนหัวใจอันบริสุทธิ์ของเราให้ต้อง ตกอยู่กับความน่าสะพรึงกลัวในสิ่งที่บ่มเพาะวิถีแห่งตัวตนอันแตกซ่าน และไร้เกาะป้องกันในการควบคุมบริบทแห่งการมีชีวิตอยู่ให้ดำรงอยู่ได้อย่าง ถาวรและสงบนิ่ง ซึ่งยิ่งยาวนานสิ่งอันเป็นปรากฏการณ์แห่งความเหลื่อมซ้อนในท่าทีเบื้องต้นก็ จะค่อยๆกลับกลายเป็นความลับแห่งจิต และค่อยๆสะสมจนกลายสภาพเป็นความเหินห่างแห่งการรอคอยที่ไกลออกไปจากความดี งามของชีวิต...มากยิ่งขึ้นทุกที..
สาระแห่งเรื่องราวเบื้องต้นคือปฐมบทแห่งสำนึกคิดของการหยั่งรู้อันเป็น ผลลัพธ์แห่งผัสสะในการเล่าเรื่อง..ผ่านนวนิยายที่ทั้งปลอกเปลือกและเฉือน คว้านเข้าไปในเนื้อในของวิถีแห่งจิตวิญญาณที่สับสนและสั่นสะท้านอันเนื่องมา แต่ความจริงอันบาดลึกจากประสบการณ์ที่ถูกกระทำย่ำยีซึ่งสั่งสมอยู่ในจุดแตก ดับแห่งมุมมืดภายใต้หัวใจและตัวตนของความลวงหลอก
ลับแล , แก่งคอย โดย อุทิศ เหมะมูล นักเขียนหนุ่มผู้สร้างสรรค์เนื้องานด้วยลีลาอันแยบยลแห่งจิตรศิลป์และจินต ศิลป์สื่อสะท้อนถึงอุบัติการณ์แห่งการถูกจองจำอย่างโหดร้ายภายใต้การบีบกด จากสัญชาตญาณที่ถูกทุบทำลายอย่างไร้หวัง...ด้วยภาพแสดงที่พลิกกลับไปมาทาง กลไกของการรับรู้และเข้าใจ
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