by Zhuge Liang
Types of Generals
There are nine types of generals.
Those who guide with virtue, who treat all equally with courtesy, who know when the troops are cold and hungry, and who notice when they are weary and pained, are called humanistic generals.
Those who do not try to avoid any task, who are not influenced by profit, who would die with honor before living in disgrace, are called dutiful generals.
Those who are not arrogant because of their high status, who do not make much of their victories, who are wise but can humble themselves, who are strong but can be tolerant, are called courteous generals.
Those whose extraordinary shifts are unfathomable, whose movements and responses are multifaceted, who turn disaster into fortune and seize victory from the jaws of danger, are called clever generals.
Those who give rich rewards for going ahead and have strict penalties for retreating, whose rewards are given right away and whose penalties are the same for all ranks, even the highest, are called trustworthy generals.
Those who go on foot or on a warhorse, with the mettle to take on a hundred men, who are skilled in the use of close-range weapons, swords, and spears are called infantry generals.
Those who face the dizzying heights and cross the dangerous defiles, who can shoot at a gallop as if in flight, who are in the vanguard when advancing and in the rear guard when withdrawing, are called cavalry generals.
Those who mettle makes the armies tremble and whose determination makes light of powerful enemies, who are hesitant to engage in petty fights while courageous in the midst of major battles, are called fierce generals.
Those who consider themselves lacking when they see the wise, who go along with good advice like following a current, who are magnanimous yet able to be firm, who are uncomplicated yet have many strategies, are called great generals.
Capacities of Commanders
The capacities of commanders are not the same; some are greater, some are lesser.
One who spies out treachery and disaster, who wins the allegiance of others, is the leader of ten men.
One who rises early in the morning and retires late at night, and whose words are discreet yet perceptive, is the leader of a hundred men.
One who is direct yet circumspect, who is brave and can fight, is the leader of a thousand men.
One of martial bearing and fierceness of heart, who knows the hardships of others and spares people from hunger and cold, is the leader of ten thousand men.
One who associates with the wise and promotes the able, who is careful of how he spends each day, who is sincere, trustworthy, and magnanimous, and who is guarded in times of order as well as times of disturbance, is the leader of a hundred thousand men.
One whose humanitarian care extends to all under his command, whose trustworthiness and justice win the allegiance of neighboring nations, who understands the signs of the sky above, the patterns of the earth below, and the affairs of humanity in between, and who regards all people as his family, is a world-class leader, one who cannot be opposed.
In Memory of Eva Cassidy
This month marked the 13th year since Eva Cassidy passed away.
Here are the rare video recordings of Eva Cassidy live at the Blues Alley in 1996.
The Blues Alley, present day.
The interior still looks pretty much the same.
Eva Marie Cassidy (February 2, 1963 – November 2, 1996) was an American vocalist known for her interpretations of jazz, blues, folk, gospel, country and pop classics. In 1992 she released her first album, The Other Side, a set of duets with go-go musician Chuck Brown, followed by a live solo album, Live at Blues Alley in 1996. Although she had been honored by the Washington Area Music Association, she was virtually unknown outside her native Washington, DC when she died of melanoma in 1996.
Four years later, Cassidy's music was brought to the attention of British audiences when her version of "Over the Rainbow" was played by Terry Wogan on BBC Radio 2. Following the overwhelming response, a camcorder recording of "Over the Rainbow", taken at the Blues Alley, was shown on BBC Two's Top of the Pops 2. Shortly afterwards, the compilation album Songbird climbed to the top of the UK Albums Charts, almost three years after its initial release. The chart success in the United Kingdom led to increased recognition worldwide; as of 2008 her posthumously released recordings, including three UK #1s, have sold around eight million copies. Her music has also charted top 10 positions in Australia, Germany, Sweden, Norway and Switzerland.
from wikipedia
Here are the rare video recordings of Eva Cassidy live at the Blues Alley in 1996.
What a Wonderful World
Somewhere Over the Rainbow
The Blues Alley, present day.
The interior still looks pretty much the same.
At the End of the World
An American scientist announces that the world will end...what do you think would be the effects on people between the announcement and the moment of cataclysm? What would you do in this last hour? ***
These were the questions printed in the French newspaper L'Intransigeant in 1922 where they invited replies from celebrities of the day. Answers from readers ranged from last act of religious worship to predictions of social mayhem.
Marcel Proust, author of the monumental In Search of Lost Time, had this to say...
I think that life would suddenly seem wonderful to us if we were threatened to die as you say. Just think of how many projects, travels, love affairs, studies our life hides from us, made invisible by our laziness which, certain of a future, delays them incessantly.
But let all this threaten to become impossible for ever, how beautiful it would become again! Ah! if only the cataclysm doesn't happen this time, we won't miss visiting the new galleries of the Lourve, throwing ourselves at the feet of Miss X., making a trip to India.
The cataclysm doesn't happen, we don't do any of it, because we find ourselves back in the heart of normal life, where negligence deadens desire. And yet we shouldn't have needed the cataclysm to love life today. It would have been enough to think that we are humans, and that death may come this evening.
Indeed, it should have been enough. Why are we all acting like myopic ants, labouring and hoarding away as if there'll be time to savour life after death? Feel free to take that as either a rhetorical question or a genuine logical problem...the former if you are miserable (like Proust always was), and the latter if you are an economist.
If nothing else, this would make a good dinner conversation.
*** The newspaper article and Proust's quote are drawn from 'How Proust Can Change Your Life' by Alain De Botton, Picador, 7.99 pounds (though available at the Strands, NY, for about that figure but in dollars)
State of Macro
- Paul Krugman's 'seminal' NYT article and subsequent thoughts [1] [2] on his blogs
- John Cochrane's reply
- Robert Gordon's paper-length article re-examines the DSGE framework
- Nalayana Kocherlakota's thought : a voice from the 'front line' economist
- Jeff Frankel
- Robert Lucas' piece on the Economist
- Barry Eichengreen
- Phillip Lane
- David Levine's open letter to Krugman
- Martin Bailey
- Robert Shiller says economists must take bubbles seriously
- Dani Rodrik thinks economist become overconfident with their models
- Gilles Saint-Paul says status quo economics is still better than multidisciplinary melting pot
- Brad DeLong: 'Shichinin no Economusutai'
ลับแล, แก่งคอย
...หนึ่งนั้นให้เป็นพี่ชายของความหลับ
อีกหนึ่งนั้นจงเป็นน้องชายของคำลวง...
อีกหนึ่งนั้นจงเป็นน้องชายของคำลวง...
ข่าวประกาศรางวัล S.E.A. Write จาก Thaipost
นายอุทิศ เหมะมูล หนุ่มจิตรกร ชาวสระบุรี คว้ารางวัลซีไรต์ปี 2552 ประเภทนวนิยายเรื่อง "ลับแล,แก่งคอย" นับว่าเป็นครั้งแรกที่คณะกรรมการตัดสินมีมติเป็น เอกฉันท์ ชี้เป็นนวนิยายที่เสนอมิติอันซับซ้อนของตัวตนมนุษย์ ใช้กลวิธีเล่าเรื่องได้แยบยล ภาษาสวยและทรงพลัง แสดงจินตนาการผู้เขียนสุดลึกซึ้ง
ม.ร.ว.สุขุมพันธุ์อ่านคำประกาศของคณะกรรมการตัดสินว่า นวนิยายเรื่อง ลับแล,แก่งคอย ของนายอุทิศ เหมะมูล เสนอมิติที่ซับซ้อนของตัวตนมนุษย์ที่แยกไม่ออกจากรากเหง้า ชาติพันธุ์ ชุมชน ความเชื่อ และเรื่องเล่า โดยผู้เขียนเล่าเรื่องชีวิตมนุษย์ที่ต้องเผชิญความคาดหวัง ซึ่งไม่อาจต้านทานได้และพยายามดิ้นรนหาทางออก ซึ่งผู้เขียนใช้กลวิธีการเล่าเรื่องอันแยบยล สร้างตัวละครที่มีเลือดเนื้อและอารมณ์ราวกับมีตัวตนจริง สร้างฉากและบรรยากาศได้อย่างมีชีวิตชีวา และใช้ภาษาเรียบง่ายแต่ทรงพลัง แสดงจินตภาพกระจ่างและงดงาม
ส่วนหนึ่งจากคำวิจารณ์ของคุณสกุล บุณยทัต (อ่านบทวิจารณ์ฉบับเต็ม)
ในความทรงจำของชีวิต เราต่างมีบาดแผลทางจิตวิญญาณเกาะติดกันอยู่อย่างติดตรึงและลึกเร้น บางขณะมันมักจะลงโทษเราจนป่วยไข้...และหลายๆขณะมันมักจะผลักดันให้เราต้องตก อยู่ในอาการหม่นมืดคลุมเครือหลับๆตื่นๆ เป็นจริตแห่งมายาคติที่ตามติด...คอยหลอกหลอนหัวใจอันบริสุทธิ์ของเราให้ต้อง ตกอยู่กับความน่าสะพรึงกลัวในสิ่งที่บ่มเพาะวิถีแห่งตัวตนอันแตกซ่าน และไร้เกาะป้องกันในการควบคุมบริบทแห่งการมีชีวิตอยู่ให้ดำรงอยู่ได้อย่าง ถาวรและสงบนิ่ง ซึ่งยิ่งยาวนานสิ่งอันเป็นปรากฏการณ์แห่งความเหลื่อมซ้อนในท่าทีเบื้องต้นก็ จะค่อยๆกลับกลายเป็นความลับแห่งจิต และค่อยๆสะสมจนกลายสภาพเป็นความเหินห่างแห่งการรอคอยที่ไกลออกไปจากความดี งามของชีวิต...มากยิ่งขึ้นทุกที..
สาระแห่งเรื่องราวเบื้องต้นคือปฐมบทแห่งสำนึกคิดของการหยั่งรู้อันเป็น ผลลัพธ์แห่งผัสสะในการเล่าเรื่อง..ผ่านนวนิยายที่ทั้งปลอกเปลือกและเฉือน คว้านเข้าไปในเนื้อในของวิถีแห่งจิตวิญญาณที่สับสนและสั่นสะท้านอันเนื่องมา แต่ความจริงอันบาดลึกจากประสบการณ์ที่ถูกกระทำย่ำยีซึ่งสั่งสมอยู่ในจุดแตก ดับแห่งมุมมืดภายใต้หัวใจและตัวตนของความลวงหลอก
ลับแล , แก่งคอย โดย อุทิศ เหมะมูล นักเขียนหนุ่มผู้สร้างสรรค์เนื้องานด้วยลีลาอันแยบยลแห่งจิตรศิลป์และจินต ศิลป์สื่อสะท้อนถึงอุบัติการณ์แห่งการถูกจองจำอย่างโหดร้ายภายใต้การบีบกด จากสัญชาตญาณที่ถูกทุบทำลายอย่างไร้หวัง...ด้วยภาพแสดงที่พลิกกลับไปมาทาง กลไกของการรับรู้และเข้าใจ
บทสัมภาษณ์อุทิศ เหมะมูล (ถ้ายังไม่ได้อ่าน ไม่แนะนำให้ดูนะครับ มี spoiler ตอนท้าย)
Youtube Collection Vol. 2
Fragments from some of my favourite movies...
Chungking Express
'On every flight, there's a stewardess you want to seduce. This time last year, at 25000 feet, I seduced one.'
Swallowtail Butterfly
'Once upon a time, when the Yen was the most powerful force in the world...the city overflowed with immigrants, like a gold rush boom town.'
Lost in Translation
'The more you know who you are and what you want, the less you let things upset you.'
Hot Fuzz
'Seen any murderings, Nicholarse?'
Hana and Alice
'What's your philosophy at 15?'
Infernal Affairs
'Sorry...I'm a cop.'
Chungking Express
'On every flight, there's a stewardess you want to seduce. This time last year, at 25000 feet, I seduced one.'
Swallowtail Butterfly
'Once upon a time, when the Yen was the most powerful force in the world...the city overflowed with immigrants, like a gold rush boom town.'
Lost in Translation
'The more you know who you are and what you want, the less you let things upset you.'
Hot Fuzz
'Seen any murderings, Nicholarse?'
Hana and Alice
'What's your philosophy at 15?'
Infernal Affairs
'Sorry...I'm a cop.'
Defence is the Last Thing the Dismal Science Needs Right Now
After publishing a parade of articles branding economics as useless for most practical purposes, the Economist finally got a rebuttal out of Robert Lucas. I think he took the hint that the complaint was mainly aimed at Chicago macro rather than macro proper (although the difference between the two can be more or less clear-cut, depending on where you are taught). Lucas said:
Now that conclusion sounds pretty dark, even for a dark age. I still struggle to understand the argument though. Prof Lucas's contention is that if there exists a tool that can correctly forecast recession/crisis, then there cannot be a crisis in the first place (the price would have fallen earlier). Hence, proof by contradiction...the fact that Lehman does happen and will happen again, must imply that such a tool cannot exist, ever.
There lies the Achilles heal of the argument. Must Lehman happen again? If there was a tool predicting its calamity, its price would have dropped before Sep 2008. Foreseeing this, Lehman probably would have avoided buying toxic securities. The originators seeing no profit, would have been more careful making subprime loans. And the crisis would never happen. The EMH, conditional on the economists delivering a good set of tool in detecting the eventual crisis, would imply no crisis. And that's what we want!
Whilst private businesses are very good at making money for themselves, they are not too preoccupied with the bigger picture of how their interactions could lead to systemic demise for everyone. After all, that is the job of the economists! To concede that if the market doesn't see it, it is hopeless for economists to work on it, is irresponsible and would indeed push the profession deeper into the dark territory.
One thing we are not going to have, now or ever, is a set of models that forecasts sudden falls in the value of financial assets, like the declines that followed the failure of Lehman Brothers in September. This is nothing new. It has been known for more than 40 years and is one of the main implications of Eugene Fama’s “efficient-market hypothesis” (EMH), which states that the price of a financial asset reflects all relevant, generally available information. If an economist had a formula that could reliably forecast crises a week in advance, say, then that formula would become part of generally available information and prices would fall a week earlier...
The main lesson we should take away from the EMH for policymaking purposes is the futility of trying to deal with crises and recessions by finding central bankers and regulators who can identify and puncture bubbles. If these people exist, we will not be able to afford them.
Now that conclusion sounds pretty dark, even for a dark age. I still struggle to understand the argument though. Prof Lucas's contention is that if there exists a tool that can correctly forecast recession/crisis, then there cannot be a crisis in the first place (the price would have fallen earlier). Hence, proof by contradiction...the fact that Lehman does happen and will happen again, must imply that such a tool cannot exist, ever.
There lies the Achilles heal of the argument. Must Lehman happen again? If there was a tool predicting its calamity, its price would have dropped before Sep 2008. Foreseeing this, Lehman probably would have avoided buying toxic securities. The originators seeing no profit, would have been more careful making subprime loans. And the crisis would never happen. The EMH, conditional on the economists delivering a good set of tool in detecting the eventual crisis, would imply no crisis. And that's what we want!
Whilst private businesses are very good at making money for themselves, they are not too preoccupied with the bigger picture of how their interactions could lead to systemic demise for everyone. After all, that is the job of the economists! To concede that if the market doesn't see it, it is hopeless for economists to work on it, is irresponsible and would indeed push the profession deeper into the dark territory.
Economists' Raison D'etre
At a November visit to the LSE the Queen asked Luis Garicano, an LSE expert on economics and management: “Why did no one see it [the crisis] coming?”
All the Fellows of British Academy who were economists felt compelled to reply. Tim Besley and others thus wrote a letter to the Queen, the essence of which said
Failure of collective imagination! ... lucky for us all the engineers don't have the same problem, or we'll end up with lots of beautiful nuts and bolts that don't quite fit each other.
Samuel Brittan, who's among the FBAs that signed the letter, observed...
For original articles, check out
All the Fellows of British Academy who were economists felt compelled to reply. Tim Besley and others thus wrote a letter to the Queen, the essence of which said
Everyone seemed to be doing their own job properly on its own merit. And according to standard measures of success, they were often doing it well. The failure was to see how collectively this added up to a series of interconnected imbalances over which no single authority had jurisdiction. This, combined with the psychology of herding and the mantra of financial and policy gurus, lead to a dangerous recipe. Individual risks may rightly have been viewed as small, but the risk to the system as a whole was vast.
So in summary, Your Majesty, the failure to foresee the timing, extent and severity of the crisis and to head it off, while it had many causes, was principally a failure of the collective imagination of many bright people, both in this country and internationally, to understand the risks to the system as a whole.
Failure of collective imagination! ... lucky for us all the engineers don't have the same problem, or we'll end up with lots of beautiful nuts and bolts that don't quite fit each other.
Samuel Brittan, who's among the FBAs that signed the letter, observed...
It is fruitful to enquire who economists are and what they actually do. This was attempted by the Royal Economic Society in a survey summarised by Ruth Towse and Mark Blaug in an Economic Journal article in March 1990. They came up against the problem that, in contrast to, say, engineers or accountants, “there is no precise way to define the economics profession”. They settled for “someone with at least a second degree in economics” (which thankfully lets me off the hook). Only 8 per cent of economics undergraduates went on to higher degrees but “this has never been allowed to undermine the perception of most academic teachers” that “all their pupils must be trained as if they were going to be professional economists”.
On this definition they estimated that in the UK there were then 3,500 practising economists of whom 2,500 were academics, 600 in private business and 400 in the government. The high salaries paid to some City economists were “atypical”. My own observation is that their repute declined so much after events such as the UK’s forced departure from the exchange rate mechanism in 1992 that some practitioners redefined themselves as “strategists”.
For original articles, check out
Amor Fati
From wikipedia ...
Amor fati is a Latin phrase that loosely translates to "love of fate" or "love of one's fate". It is used to describe an attitude in which one sees everything that happens in one's life, including suffering and loss, as good. That is, one feels that everything that happens is destiny's way of reaching its ultimate purpose, and so should be considered good. Moreover, it is characterized by an acceptance of the events that occur in one's life. It is almost identical to the Jewish concept of Gam Zu Letovah (this too is for the best).
The phrase is used repeatedly in Nietzsche's writings and is representative of the general outlook on life he articulates in section 276 of The Gay Science, which reads,
I want to learn more and more to see as beautiful what is necessary in things; then I shall be one of those who make things beautiful. Amor fati: let that be my love henceforth! I do not want to wage war against what is ugly. I do not want to accuse; I do not even want to accuse those who accuse. Looking away shall be my only negation. And all in all and on the whole: some day I wish to be only a Yes-sayer.
Quote from "Why I Am So Clever" in Ecce Homo, section 10[1]:
My formula for greatness in a human being is amor fati: that one wants nothing to be different, not forward, not backward, not in all eternity. Not merely bear what is necessary, still less conceal it—all idealism is mendaciousness in the face of what is necessary—but love it.
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